Russians poorer for the fourth year in a row: why falling real incomes
No sooner had we rejoice appeared just a couple of days ago to Rosstat, for the growth of GDP (2.5% in the second quarter, 1.5% for six months) and inflation (about 4% annualized), as there statistics on real disposable income. And immediately overturned all the previous good news!
The population continues to Peter out in July recorded a decline in real incomes of Russians by 0.9% compared to the same month last year and 3.1% compared to June 2017. Meanwhile, in June for the first time in the last three years of income were not in the minus, and zero. And on the background recorded by Rosstat in July the GDP growth began to hope that real incomes may be a little, but still will add. And this is could be interpreted as the true beginning of the exit from the crisis — and not macroeconomic, but in normal, human terms. But it did not happen: the July statistics recorded ruthlessly: the fall continues!
The question arises: why, if the whole economy is experiencing some recovery, the population remains in... let's say, the red? Try to understand.
Recall that real disposable money income — is nominal income minus obligatory payments adjusted for inflation. Our main income is, of course, wages. And they, if you believe the statistics will increase. Nominal average monthly salary in July reached 39 355 rubles. Growth — 3%. Which is good, but the trouble is that all this plus inflation eats, which though is at a record low, but still outweighs the modest increase in wages.
And pensions in real terms also went down. This thesis probably can cause bewilderment: as so, because the government has already held indexation of insurance part of pensions on the size of last year's inflation. However, the fact is that in January the government was "blessed" by the elderly one-time payment of five-thousand compensation instead of indexing for inflation, passed in 2016. Given the fact that the average pension in Russia does not hold up to 13 thousand per month, the January increase of five thousand rubles was a real Everest to pension statistics. Naturally, in all subsequent months, the recorded fall in real pension payments compared to January.
Finally, another blow to the real disposable income of Russians has caused increased over the last year taxes relating to mandatory payments, the amount of which is adjusted nominal income. Why should only grown sharply over this period, the property tax, which is now considered to be not estimated BTI and cadastral (i.e. market) value of the home!
All these factors together and turn a plus the nominal income in real minus in purses. Sad statistics: real incomes are declining for the fourth consecutive year. In 2014, the decrease amounted to 0.7% in 2015 and 3.2% in 2016 to 5.9%. For the whole of this long period was the only month when revenues fell, but grew up (and quite significantly, by 8.1%), to January 2017. And it happened because... Yes, the same lump-sum payment of 5 thousand millions of our pensioners.
From this follows a simple conclusion: growth in real incomes will occur only when the state will seek funds for new large-scale indexing of salaries or pensions to the elderly.
So in our country happened in "fat" the zero years when the Federal budget is bursting with easy petrodollars flowing into it amid rapidly rising in price of "black gold". Revenues then significantly exceeded expenditure, and this government could spend millions of public sector stable indexing, thereby increasing the income level of the population as a whole.
But the Lafayette was in the past. After a dramatic fall of the price of a barrel in the second half of 2014, the budget remains in deficit. Hole in it for the first half of 2017 is about 425 billion rubles, or 0.8% of GDP. Therefore, money for all sorts of compensation and indexation the government to take nowhere, God forbid existing obligations to state employees and retirees to perform...
So, and wait for the growth of real incomes in the short term there is no reason. The economic crisis for the Russian population continues: tomorrow will be worse than yesterday.
Dmitry Dokuchaev
No sooner had we rejoice appeared just a couple of days ago to Rosstat, for the growth of GDP (2.5% in the second quarter, 1.5% for six months) and inflation (about 4% annualized), as there statistics on real disposable income. And immediately overturned all the previous good news!
The population continues to Peter out in July recorded a decline in real incomes of Russians by 0.9% compared to the same month last year and 3.1% compared to June 2017. Meanwhile, in June for the first time in the last three years of income were not in the minus, and zero. And on the background recorded by Rosstat in July the GDP growth began to hope that real incomes may be a little, but still will add. And this is could be interpreted as the true beginning of the exit from the crisis — and not macroeconomic, but in normal, human terms. But it did not happen: the July statistics recorded ruthlessly: the fall continues!
The question arises: why, if the whole economy is experiencing some recovery, the population remains in... let's say, the red? Try to understand.
Recall that real disposable money income — is nominal income minus obligatory payments adjusted for inflation. Our main income is, of course, wages. And they, if you believe the statistics will increase. Nominal average monthly salary in July reached 39 355 rubles. Growth — 3%. Which is good, but the trouble is that all this plus inflation eats, which though is at a record low, but still outweighs the modest increase in wages.
And pensions in real terms also went down. This thesis probably can cause bewilderment: as so, because the government has already held indexation of insurance part of pensions on the size of last year's inflation. However, the fact is that in January the government was "blessed" by the elderly one-time payment of five-thousand compensation instead of indexing for inflation, passed in 2016. Given the fact that the average pension in Russia does not hold up to 13 thousand per month, the January increase of five thousand rubles was a real Everest to pension statistics. Naturally, in all subsequent months, the recorded fall in real pension payments compared to January.
Finally, another blow to the real disposable income of Russians has caused increased over the last year taxes relating to mandatory payments, the amount of which is adjusted nominal income. Why should only grown sharply over this period, the property tax, which is now considered to be not estimated BTI and cadastral (i.e. market) value of the home!
All these factors together and turn a plus the nominal income in real minus in purses. Sad statistics: real incomes are declining for the fourth consecutive year. In 2014, the decrease amounted to 0.7% in 2015 and 3.2% in 2016 to 5.9%. For the whole of this long period was the only month when revenues fell, but grew up (and quite significantly, by 8.1%), to January 2017. And it happened because... Yes, the same lump-sum payment of 5 thousand millions of our pensioners.
From this follows a simple conclusion: growth in real incomes will occur only when the state will seek funds for new large-scale indexing of salaries or pensions to the elderly.
So in our country happened in "fat" the zero years when the Federal budget is bursting with easy petrodollars flowing into it amid rapidly rising in price of "black gold". Revenues then significantly exceeded expenditure, and this government could spend millions of public sector stable indexing, thereby increasing the income level of the population as a whole.
But the Lafayette was in the past. After a dramatic fall of the price of a barrel in the second half of 2014, the budget remains in deficit. Hole in it for the first half of 2017 is about 425 billion rubles, or 0.8% of GDP. Therefore, money for all sorts of compensation and indexation the government to take nowhere, God forbid existing obligations to state employees and retirees to perform...
So, and wait for the growth of real incomes in the short term there is no reason. The economic crisis for the Russian population continues: tomorrow will be worse than yesterday.
Dmitry Dokuchaev
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